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Agent-based Models of Land Use / Land Cover Change - Schedule

Thursday, 3:00-6:00 at the Hyatt
Short presentations

Saturday, 2:45-4:30 at the Beckman center

Break-out session followed by group discussion

  • What lessons have we learned for MAS/LUCC models from the NAS sessions?

Sunday, 8:30-10:00 at the Hyatt 
Goals and Models

Break-out groups followed by summaries and discussion

  • Introductory Remarks
  • What are our goals for the workshop?

    LUCC working paper goals
    Potential follow-up activities:
            - CSISS expert meeting?
            - NAS Colloquium?
            - Special journal issue?
            - Listserve and enhanced web site

  • What are the potential strengths of MAS/LUCC models?  What is the most appropriate role for such models?

    Dealing with space and time
    Process discovery vs. policy analysis
    Levels of abstraction

10:00-10:15 -- Coffee break

10:15-Noon -- Linking models to data

Break-out groups followed by summaries and discussion

  • How can models be parameterized?

    Data from outside the system:  surveys, experiments, statistical models, GIS coverages 

    Data gathered within the system:  same sources

  • What are the compatibilities and synergies of alternative modeling techniques?

  • What are the special challenges for model verification for MAS/LUCC models? 

    Understanding systems that can't be analytically explored 

    Understanding systems with non-linearities, complex feedbacks, and multiple equilibria 

    Identifying problems of parameter identification (i.e., an outcome may have several observationally equivalent possible causes) 

  • What are possible techniques for model validation (i.e., comparing generated and actual landscapes and behavior)? 

Landscape comparisons -- existing techniques and possible innovations 

Behavioral comparisons 

  • What are important issues with respect to spatial and temporal scale that must be considered in model parameterization, verification, and validation?

  • What empirical challenges are unique to MAS/LUCC models?  

12:00-1:00 -- Lunch

1:00-3:00 Infrastructure Development

New break-out groups followed by summaries and discussion

  • What tools have researchers used and explored? 

  • What are the strengths and weaknesses of these tools? 

  • What enhancements are needed? 

  • What coordination or investments would be helpful? 

3:00-3:15 -- Coffee Break

3:15-5:00 Open Questions

Full group discussion

  • Modeling human decision making (discussed)
  • Modeling socio-political phenomena (institutions, group decision making, etc…) (discussed)
  • Modeling land markets and alternative land allocation strategies (discussed)
  • Modeling interactions 
  • Modeling endogenous rule formation
  • What can’t we use ABM models for?
  • What non-human entities can be represented as agents?
  • What should be endogenous and exogenous to our models?

5:00-5:30 -- Closing discussion

  • Potential publication outlets

  • Development of enhanced web site

  • Possible future workshops, conference venues

  • Other communication strategies 

5:30 Adjourn

 


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